Remember when Tesla was just a weird car company with a $20 stock price? That was before the world lost its mind. Before COVID lockdowns, before the fake ventilators, before Elon started cosplaying as Iron Man. Then the stimmy checks hit. And like that, everyone with a Robinhood app became a “long-term investor” in what would become the most overpriced car company in history.

What followed wasn’t investing—it was gambling with government money. And Tesla, the perfect storm of brand cult, tech mystique, and media hype, became the meme-stock king. It didn’t matter that they weren’t selling 10x more cars. It didn’t matter that full self-driving still didn’t work. The stock 10x’d anyway.

From $20 to $200+ — Without 10x Growth

In early 2020, before the pandemic, Tesla traded at about $20 a share post-split. That price already assumed generous future growth. But then came COVID, and the company that wasn’t even allowed to operate during lockdowns somehow became a national treasure. Elon defied shutdown orders, claimed he was making ventilators (he wasn’t), and used that moment to cast himself as some sort of maverick savior.

And just like that, retail investors flooded in. Most didn’t even like cars. They just had extra money—not because of profit, but because of stimulus. And unlike traditional bailouts, these stimmy checks went to everyone, whether they needed them or not. What did people do? They bought stocks. Or Dogecoin. Or Tesla. It was all the same to them.

Tesla Didn’t Earn the Valuation. It Inhaled It.

Let’s be clear: Tesla never grew 10x in output. They didn’t produce 10x more cars, they didn’t suddenly dominate global markets, and their profits didn’t go from “tiny” to “tech giant.” In fact, they were still selling fewer cars than Ford, Toyota, or Volkswagen. They just had the best story.

But the fantasy was contagious. Tesla’s market cap ballooned past $1 trillion at one point. That’s more than Toyota, Ford, GM, and Volkswagen—combined. All for a company that had never turned a meaningful profit without selling regulatory credits.

A Casino Disguised as a Car Company

Tesla’s stock is so volatile, its daily price swings are sometimes larger than the entire market cap of Ford or Nissan. Think about that. One day of irrational investor sentiment can wipe out or add more value than entire auto companies.

And the media? Useless. They publish “Tesla is up today” or “Tesla is down today” articles like weather reports, with whatever narrative they think fits. By the time the story is written, the price has already moved the opposite direction.

No one actually knows why it moves. Because none of it makes sense.

Full Self-Driving: Vaporware With a Price Tag

Tesla’s supposed trump card—Full Self-Driving—has been “coming soon” since at least 2016. That infamous FSD demo video? It was faked. And today, it still doesn’t work reliably. You have to pay $8,000–$15,000 for software that’s not finished, that resets with each new vehicle, and that has already failed basic safety tests.

Meanwhile, BYD is giving their version of driver assistance away for free … on cars that cost less than Tesla’s FSD software itself traditionally. So are most other automakers. The idea that Tesla has a “software moat” is pure fiction—unless you count lock-in schemes and sunk-cost fallacies.

Musk Sold. His Fans Bought.

Musk cashed out billions. His brother Kimbal sold. Multiple board members have quietly dumped shares. But while insiders are selling, Elon’s telling employees to HODL and retail investors to “believe.” Because as long as someone’s buying, he can keep taking out margin loans against inflated stock and fund whatever scheme he’s chasing this week—X, XAI, Mars, or memes.

There’s No One Left to Sell To

At this point, everyone who believed in Tesla’s future already bought in. The early tech optimists? They made their 10x and left. Institutions? They’re trying to unload slowly, without tanking the price. Who’s left? Right-wing culture warriors and average American taxpayers who thought Tesla would make them rich.

Problem is, Tesla can’t sell enough cars to justify its price. And if robo-taxis ever worked (they won’t), people would need fewer cars, not more. You can’t have trillion-dollar car company economics and a world with 80% fewer vehicles. One cancels the other out.

The Bubble Never Ended. It Just Got Older.

We act like the 2021 bubble popped. But Tesla is still over $200 a share. That means people still think this company, with modest profits and a shrinking lead, is worth hundreds of billions. It’s not. It never was.

This is the same stimulus-fueled speculation—just with a different flavor. The investors changed, but the math didn’t. And when this bubble finally finishes deflating, the real question will be:

Who’s still holding the bag?